AUC (95% CI) | Logistic Regression a | Machine Learning |
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Basic Model b | Quantitative Model c | Basic Model | Quantitative Model |
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Overalld (n = 16730) | 0.739 (0.731–0.747) | 0.781 (0.774–0.788) | 0.746 (0.738–0.753) | 0.785 (0.778–0.792) |
HR+/HER2- (n = 5481) | 0.749 (0.732–0.767) | 0.811 (0.795–0.827) | 0.756 (0.739–0.773) | 0.817 (0.802–0.832) |
HR+/HER2+ (n = 4043) | 0.612 (0.595–0.630) | 0.744 (0.729–0.760) | 0.623 (0.605–0.640) | 0.751 (0.736–0.766) |
HR-/HER2+ (n = 1787) | 0.558 (0.530–0.586) | 0.616 (0.588–0.644) | 0.603 (0.576–0.631) | 0.640 (0.613–0.668) |
TNBC (n = 5419) | 0.649 (0.634–0.663) | 0.654 (0.639–0.668) | 0.647 (0.632–0.662) | 0.654 (0.639–0.669) |
- Abbreviations AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; HR, hormone receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; TNBC, triple-negative breast cancer
- aDetails of the logistic regression models can be found in eTable 13
- bThe basic models included the basic features (i.e. age at diagnosis, clinical T and N stages, histology types, tumor grades and comorbidity index)
- cThe quantitative models included both the basic features (i.e. age at diagnosis, clinical T and N stages, histology types, tumor grades and comorbidity index) and the quantitative features (i.e. ER%, PR%, HER2 IHC categories, HER2/CEP17 ratios and Ki-67 scores
- dThe AUC of each model was estimated among the 30% hold-out validation set overall and within each breast cancer subtype, the 95% CIs of the AUCs were calculated using the ‘pROC’ package in R